This House believes that progress towards democracy has halted in the Arab world

TIM SEBASTIAN
Ladies and gentlemen, I'm delighted to welcome you to the first in our new series of Doha Debates coming to you from the Gulf State of Qatar and sponsored by the Qatar Foundation.  Democracy in the Arab world: is it a work in progress or has that work ground to a halt and been put aside for the foreseeable future?  Are meaningful elections on their way, is the press getting freer, are the judiciary more independent?  And how many Arabs have the right to change their governments through the ballot box? Just some of the questions we have to answer with our motion tonight: ‘This House believes that progress towards democracy has halted in the Arab world.'  Well, speaking for that motion, Dr. Amr Hamzawy, an Egyptian political scientist and Senior Associate of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, a think-tank based in the United States.  Much of his work has focused on the way people take part in politics in the Arab world and the role of Islamist movements.  With him is Mustafa Hamarneh who is currently director and CEO of the media company Al Mada, and is a former director of the Jordanian Centre for Strategic Studies.  Last year he became chairman of the Arab Reform Initiative which encourages democratic change in the region. Speaking against the motion, Salah Al-Shaikhly, who was Iraq's ambassador to the UK from 2004 to 2007.  His career in politics has spanned more than 50 years during which time he served as Assistant Secretary General at the United Nations and helped set up the opposition movement, the Iraqi National Accord.  Also against the motion, May Chidiac, a Lebanese television presenter and journalist.  She's received a number of awards for journalism and for defending free speech.  In September 2005 she was the victim of a car bomb attack north of Beirut, but she's back now with her own television programme and we're delighted to welcome her to Doha tonight. Ladies and gentlemen, our panel.  So now let me first ask Amr Hamzawy to speak for the motion please.

AMR HAMZAWY 
Thank you very much, Tim.  Good evening to everyone.  I passionately believe that democratic progress has come to a halt in the Arab world and I have four major arguments to make, which in fact document four facts which we see in most Arab countries.  One: we haven't moved closer in most Arab societies to a just distribution of political power.  We still have a high concentration of political power, we haven't come closer to a rotation of power by democratic means.  Tim noted it in his introductory remarks - Arab citizens, when they elect, they elect in a less free way than we see it in other countries and when they elect freely, election results are not respected.  The second fact which documents why we haven't been moving ahead in terms of democratic progress is the fact that we still lack checks and balances between different branches of government.  When you look at Arab countries, we have overly dominant executive powers, we have very weak, vulnerable judiciaries and legislative institutions.  Parliament and judiciaries lack oversight powers and when they have them, in those who have constitutions, they are hardly practised in reality.  The third factor: when you look at Arab citizens and the question of whether Arab citizens are enjoying more civil and political freedoms in 2008 as opposed to the 1980s and 1990s - and if we mean by ‘civil and political liberties and rights' freedom of speech, freedom of expression, freedom of association and freedom of organisation - the answer is a clear ‘no' in most Arab countries. There are two exceptions: Iraq and Lebanon - but whatever liberties citizens in Iraq and Lebanon are enjoying are practised in the context of failed or failing state institutions where the rule of law is yet to be established, where we have governments that lack monopoly over the legitimate use of force.  The final factor which I have is that when you look across the region from Morocco to Bahrain, when we take opposition forces and we ask ourselves a question: whether they are mounting a real challenge to ruling establishments, whether they are generating enough pressures on ruling establishments to open up, to democratise - the answer is that opposition movements in the region, be it liberal or Islamist, NGOs, political parties, are weak, are vulnerable and are being manipulated by ruling establishments.
TIM SEBASTIAN
Amr Hamzawy, thank you very much indeed. You wrote last year, "The rise of democracy is not confined to rhetoric.  Limited but real changes are taking place." You wrote this.  Are you sure you're on the right side of the debate?
AMR HAMZAWY
I am.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
You're arguing that they didn't take place now?
AMR HAMZAWY 
What I argued - and it's not only one piece of writing but more than one piece - what I argued is the same argument I would make today.  Arab societies are changing. We are looking in many Arab countries ...
TIM SEBASTIAN
Greater pluralism? They've experimented with minor reform measures.
AMR HAMZAWY
Minor reform measures are what I really mean and...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Well, that's a start to democratisation, isn't it?
AMR HAMZAWY 
It's not, it's not, because it's not adding up, it's not accumulating ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
But how else would it look if it were starting?  It would start with small steps.
AMR HAMZAWY 
Let me just clarify two points.  One: major change is taking place in a societal sense.  If you look at the Gulf countries, some Gulf countries, we are looking at impressive modernisation processes which are taking place.  We have great dynamic social spheres, economic spheres, but they are yet to impact on the politics of the region.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Why do you say that?  Since 2000, you pointed out: the first municipal elections in Saudi Arabia since the 60s, women got the right to vote for and run professional associations, in Oman people got the right to vote in 2003, in the UAE there were first partial elections in 2006 - if those aren't moves towards democracy, I don't know what is.
AMR HAMZAWY 
Well, those are moves in the direction of good governance, and we have to differentiate between what governance means, what good governance means, and what democracy means.
TIM SEBASTIAN
But it has opened the space for greater pluralism, greater participation and more opposition.
AMR HAMZAWY 
No-one would doubt that we have a greater participation to an extent in the region but ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
And that isn't a hallmark of democracy?
AMR HAMZAWY 
Well, it's a step but it's not accumulating, it's not adding up because...
TIM SEBASTIAN 
But you're arguing that it's halted and now you're telling me there are steps.
AMR HAMZAWY 
Because we have countries which have been back-sliding on democratic progress.  If you look at Jordan, Egypt, Morocco, we have clearly a regression.  The steps which you pointed out are primarily irrelevant when you look at the Gulf countries and primarily irrelevant when you look at small Arab countries, but those steps when added up ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
But how do you know they're irrelevant, how do you know?
AMR HAMZAWY 
I'm not saying they are irrelevant, they are yet to add up into a qualitative shape with regard to the distribution of power, checks and balances.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
But they could do, but they could do?
AMR HAMZAWY  
Not sure.  As long as they have autocratic establishments and lack of the rule of law, I'm not sure they will add up to much...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Amr Hamzawy, thank you very much indeed, thank you.  Could I now ask please Salah Al-Shaikhly to speak against the motion.

SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
Thank you, your Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen. May I start my intervention by saying I am against this motion and I cannot accept that the process of democracy has halted in the Arab world.  I can tell you from my experience of over 50 years in Arab and international politics, that the nationalist liberation movement since the early 20^th century had strong democratic and liberation movements since that time and this has been reflected in that literature time and again. The democratic process has a number of prerequisites, as most of you would know, and institutional requirements which include of course liberties and the freedom of belief.  Now, to claim - and this is what the motion is saying - that the process has come to an end on the strength of just a few anecdotes is to banish democracy into oblivion and to discard you as an upcoming, new, vibrant Arab generation which of course you will have the leadership over in the years to come.  Many Arab nations have enjoyed the relative freedom to organise themselves into political parties, associations, trade unions and NGOs.  In fact a study not long ago has found over 50,000 such organisations in the Arab World.  In many countries, the media has been relatively free to monitor and criticise government: in Egypt, Kuwait, Iraq, Lebanon. The judicial system and the practice of the judiciary have been monitored by human rights organisations: therefore they cannot really do very much.  International pressure has been mounting and many Arab rulers are really weary of any blatant violation of human rights and the process of democracy.  Elections and the parliamentary system have become the accepted norm.  If we have not succeeded first time, we're going to succeed second time, if not second time, third time.  After all, history wasn't built in one day.  The Iraq experience of the past few years, although not brilliant, although not perfect, I think it has been very, very encouraging.   Mr. Chairman, I believe that the rumours about the death of democracy in the Arab World are highly exaggerated.  Thank you.
TIM SEBASTIAN  
Salah Al-Shaikhly, thank you very much indeed.  If, as you say democracy is marching on in the Arab World, how many Arabs now stand the chance of voting out their leaders?
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
They can ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Where, where?
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
... when given the due process.  I mean ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
No, I mean, tell me who is the first Arab leader who's going to be voted out of power, peacefully by his people?
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
Well, obviously I cannot forecast the future but I think let's wait and see what happens in Iraq at the end of 2009.  I can assure you, although I mean, you know, I don't want to look at a crystal ball...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
But if you're telling me democracy is progressing in the Arab world, you can't point to a single leader who's going to be voted out in the process.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY  
It will, I mean, the process in Egypt, for example, as my colleague from Egypt would know, President Mubarak actually he went down to the street, he campaigned, he only got 76%.  Now, this is progress, when he used to get 99%, now he's got 76.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
But you know perfectly well, he's not going to be voted out of office, is he? Salah Al-Shaikhly, he's not going to be voted out of office. The Al-Saud are not going to be voted out of office, in Saudi Arabia, are they?
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
You don't know, you don't know.  Once we can rally our Arab youth to take part, not to feel the apathy that we have in many Arab countries, we encourage them ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
But Egypt is under emergency law, it's been under emergency law for decades.  In Saudi Arabia, you call for constitutional monarchy, you're jailed.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
We have kingdoms which we cannot change, we have prime ministers, and definitely look at Jordan, every few days we have a new prime minister, and look at ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Are you saying suddenly Jordan is democratic?
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
I think the ruler is reacting to the demands of the street, and he may not tell us so but I can assure you, having mixed with these people for such a long time, they are really aware exactly what is happening ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
So if he's reacting to the street, where's the timetable for democracy?  Where are the next steps?  What should we be looking at?  You can't offer me any specifics at all, can you?
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
I can tell you something, we cannot ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
You can offer me vague assurances that something is stirring somewhere.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY
Yes, look...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
But there are no tangible signs of it whatsoever.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
We cannot wish for our region what we do not demand from Western countries, and this is really, it's... we are an emerging nation.  For God's sake, let's keep it to that dimension.  I mean, look at Britain, look at the United States, look at Germany.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Well, what's the comparison there?
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
Only 36 per cent of people in Europe go out voting, so compared to 11 million, compared to 11 million people in Iraq, this is progress.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Salah Al-Shaikhly, I'm going to stop you there.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
This is progress.  Thank you.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Okay, we'll let the audience judge that later on.  Thank you very much indeed.  Now let me ask please Mustafa Hamarneh to speak for the motion.

MUSTAFA HAMARNEH
Yes, I fully agree with Amr. I think regression is an ever-present possibility in the Arab world and it's across the board.  You see little progress here and there but in terms of achieving accumulative gains that will allow our structures to move and achieve ultimately qualitative changes in our societies - this has not happened thus far and I think it's deeper than what Amr mentioned - these are the symptoms of the disease. The disease lies in the fact that we have been unable to build modern Arab states with modern Arab bureaucracies; modern Arab states based on the concept of citizenship where you have political participation, equality and freedom, and of course the rule of law, and therefore bureaucracies are whimsical, they're based on a one-man show, everybody works for the person who is the Head of State, not for the Head of State regardless of who that person is.  Authority is derived from the person, not from the office, and of course the declared objectives of the state are never achieved, precisely because bureaucracies don't function, and I think this is where the disease lies. The fact that we have been unable to move forward on these structural issues, so you see parliaments here and there, but they're parliaments without teeth because universal suffrage in many ways has had a detrimental impact on the process itself.  And I think also the rulers have been quite smart in ‘secretising' the whole public space.  Everything is seen from the perspective of the security apparatus.  Try and register a centre of research in any Arab country - except maybe for Lebanon - try and work bottom-up to set up a good organisation in any Arab country and you'll see the daily obstacles.  I don't see an independent media - with very few exceptions - flourishing in the Arab world and therefore the media does not play the role that it's supposed to play.  The education system is a shambles; universities don't produce qualified people, qualified young men and women, to make societies, better societies, to work either in the bureaucracy or the public sector. So I think we really are at a very critical stage in the development of our societies and we really lie outside history at the moment.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Mustafa Hamarneh, thank you very much indeed.  No democracy in Kuwait? You say there has been a little bit in certain parliaments, they're trying to find out where the money's gone, they're trying to have a say in succession.  That's not democracy pushing off?
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH  
No, no, no.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
What is it then?  That's what parliaments do in the West.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH  
Yes, they do more than that, they legislate.  They have a serious and fundamental impact on the process of social change.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
But they do start by asking questions, don't they?
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH
I understand but we've been asking the same questions since 1807.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Well, now we're getting some answers, now we're getting some answers, aren't we?
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH
This is the problem with us, we've been asking the same questions for the past 200 years.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
You're a democratic activist.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH  
Yes, of course.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
You have space to operate in.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH  
Of course.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
You're not being closed down, you're pushing the boundaries.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH  
No.  Of course.  I've never claimed that we live in police states.  There's no doubt about it that Arab societies today, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
So the point I made to your colleague is the same for you - that there is more space for you to operate in.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH
I never denied that.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
That's part of the function of the democratic society, you have more space for the opposition to function in.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH
No, it's more than that, it's much more than that.  It's not only to function in a limited way and a tamed way and in a contained way.  People don't flourish in the public space today in the Arab world - and it's precisely because of the pressure from above.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
But there's pressure everywhere, in every society.  Democratic societies have as much pressure as non-democratic ones.  Look at Britain, look at America.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH
It's relative.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
It's a battle everywhere.  Do you expect it to be easy?
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH 
Of course not, but I think the comparison is not an accurate one here because we're talking still at a much more basic level.  In the West you've been able... the success of the German bureaucracy in the 19^th century, the French bureaucracy in the 18^th century, and the success of ...
TIM SEBASTIAN
Let's take the Gulf States here for instance.  Do you know that people have the rulers they want?
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH 
If you talk about the natives, probably with the consumerism they have and the way of life they have ...
TIM SEBASTIAN    
That's not bad.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH  
But that's not what all life is all about.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
No, but to have the rulers that you want, have popular rulers, the rulers' ratings are probably much higher than George Bush's these days in America.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH
But also you have to talk about false consciousness, when the ability of the dominant culture in our societies can create values and create consciousness for the people, which is objectively not the true feelings of these people. I don't think what we need or what it should be for is consumerism and the ability to have a selection of pop soda to drink from.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
All right, Mustafa Hamarneh, thank you very much indeed.  Now let me ask May Chidiac please to speak against the motion.  

MAY CHIDIAC 
First I have very personal reasons for being against this motion.  When you say progress towards democracy has halted in the Arab world that means it's completely stopped.  I don't think that the two gentlemen in front of us were saying that it's completely stopped in the Arab world, because first we cannot take the Arab world as the one compact body because there are different models, different contexts within its national entities - and if it's true that in some countries there are set-backs when it comes to democratisation, it is not the case in many others where the situation today is better than a few years ago or a few decades ago.  Some legislations are contradicted by some practices, for instance security measures could sometimes limit political freedoms, but definitely efforts at democratisation are not over because despite some obstacles that hinder implementing democracy, we must believe in our goals and hold the door open for initiatives, ideas and steps leading to it.  If the engine of reform must come from within the Arab world, it is also true that such change cannot come without outside pressure.  We need such pressure, like what happened in Iraq, like what happened in Lebanon.  Anyway, we can enumerate many cases where the situation is evolving positively.  I will reiterate maybe some of what my co-speaker said earlier, for example we have Morocco.  I consider that the situation over there has evolved since the end of the 90s in a democratic manner.  In Kuwait, women are finally allowed to vote and to be candidates for elections.  This is a good point.  In Bahrain, the situation today is not to be compared to what it used to be ten years ago, and finally in Lebanon, where regardless of all attacks and violent pressures on the country and its political institutions by its neighbours and by some local forces, Lebanon has moved from the Syria era to independence from the pre-determined elections results to a competitive electoral process.  The challenge is now how to defend the independence, with the stability, and how to reform the democratic institutions, and if you want the best proof of that process that I consider - it has not been halted despite all the obstacles - just remember who I am and what I've been through.
TIM SEBASTIAN  
We can't forget.  Thank you very much indeed.  You talk about different models towards democracy but the same lack of results in all of them, aren't there? The same lack of tangible results? Yes. What's the point of having different models if you don't get any results from them?
MAY CHIDIAC 
Why do you consider that we you don't have any results?
TIM SEBASTIAN   
What results?  Tell me how many Arabs have voted out their leaders.
MAY CHIDIAC 
In Lebanon we have a constitution and the parliament voted.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
In Lebanon you have militias running around shooting at everybody they want. You have a government that can't even...
MAY CHIDIAC 
Unfortunately... I cannot understand why you are laughing.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
You have a government that cannot control order on the streets.  What point is there in having a vote under those circumstances?
MAY CHIDIAC 
No.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Well, what does it achieve?  It's a failed state, isn't it?
MAY CHIDIAC 
Excuse me, Tim, but you have to compare what stage we were at before - in 2005 - and where we are right now.  Before 2005, in 2000, the Israeli troops withdrew from Lebanon.  In 2005 the Syrians troops withdrew from Lebanon.  For me it's a big achievement.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
And these days Hezbollah can close off bits of the city whenever they feel like it, bring out the militia and...
MAY CHIDIAC 
Hezbollah are Lebanese people, we cannot consider them as foreigners, but at the same time they are not working on behalf of Lebanon ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
How about the money that's funding them?
MAY CHIDIAC 
No, no, they are funded by Iran and they are the allies of Syria and Iran and...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
You can't talk about democracy when there isn't basic law and order on the streets.
MAY CHIDIAC 
No, no, there is democracy, there is democracy, we are still here.
TIM SEBASTIAN  
What does it mean, what does it mean?
MAY CHIDIAC 
We are still here saying that you are not okay with what they are trying to impose on us. Today we had a meeting in Baabda Palace of all the members representing the different parties in Lebanon and they were discussing the main issues.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
And the results are what? At the end of the day, what are the results of this so-called democracy?
MAY CHIDIAC
When we talk about dialogue the process, that means it will not reach a conclusion in one day. It's a long process, we've been through war for thirty years now, a little bit more...?
TIM SEBASTIAN   
So you hold out a vague hope that at some point these discussions ...
MAY CHIDIAC
No, it's not vague, it's not vague.
TIM SEBASTIAN 
... are going to lead to something concrete that the rest of the world would recognise as democracy.
MAY CHIDIAC 
No, we are standing right now in a much better place if we compare it to where we were three years ago, even though we paid a big price, a big sacrifice. I lost a hand, I lost a leg, but I'm still here defending the cause I believe in, the cause of Lebanon, so I consider that we still respect freedom of expression in Lebanon, even if some killers want to get rid of us.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
May Chidiac, thank you very much indeed.  All right, I'm going to now throw the motion open to the floor: ‘This House believes that progress towards democracy has halted in the Arab world.' We will be happy now to take your questions.  There's a gentleman right at the back. You have a question, sir.

AUDIENCE (M)
A prominent periodical by the name of The Economist produced a democracy index in 2007, in which it only found out that there are three countries in the Middle East that have democracy - that being Lebanon, Iraq and Israel.  How would you reconcile the findings of this periodical in which it reviewed 167 nations and only found three nations in the Middle East with measures of democracy?
TIM SEBASTIAN   
What is your question exactly - how the panel reacts to those findings?
AUDIENCE (M)  
I'd like to find out how they could basically justify that democracy did not halt, yet many countries in the Middle East do not really have the foundations of democracy in place.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
May Chidiac.
MAY CHIDIAC
It did not halt in the Middle East because we were talking about Kuwait for example.  You cannot say that even if there is a monarchy over there - it doesn't mean that there is not some, a kind of democracy in this country.  You have parliamentary elections, you have... they reached a point where women can participate. Before - one year ago - they were not allowed to, so this is a step. If you have a ladder, you have to go level after level, you cannot reach the top by climbing because you will fall down.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Amr Hamzawy, you wanted to come in here.
AMR HAMZAWY  
I strongly disagree.  We're simply confusing pluralism and democracy.  Democracy is about three major factors: rotation of power, checks and balances and the rule of law. Now if you could pick any Arab country where we have the three factors coming together and leading into a fair and just political competition with no powers interfering in the process of political competition, I would be happy to support your arguments - but it's not.  We are not looking at any - even Iraq and Lebanon included - at any Arab case where we have the three factors coming together.  One more point on looking at Arab societies and democratisation, which Tim was trying to raise: yes, we have dynamic societies, we have free economies, we have liberalised economic spaces. But in our region - in fact quite an exception when we compare it to Latin America, Eastern Europe, or other successful cases of democratic transition - societal dynamism, economic liberalisation haven't led to political democratisation.  We are not...we are in a trap.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Salah Al-Shaikhly, you want to come back on that, do you?
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
Yes.  What we say... this motion says that progress towards democracy has halted.  What I am arguing is that it is moving and it has not halted.  What you said - it's probably going slowly - well, I might agree with you in certain countries but it has not halted.  You see, for democracy to halt in a country means you have really banished the whole society to oblivion. In other words, nobody thinks in a society, nobody tries, nobody forms an association, a union, nobody speaks freely in the media. So the steps of democracy I'm sure.. you see..you know, I'm not a - I'm a Professor of economics, not of politics - but if you have followed this very closely and you know the history of democracy, the progress is slow, especially like my colleague has said, culture is very important. We have Arab, tribal and Islamic culture.  Now against that, as you move into the society, this is the speed in which you are going.  We have not halted.  Probably it'll take us a little bit longer, but I can assure you if we don't proceed, we would not reach any conclusion at the end. We have to keep on at our governments.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Okay, let Mustafa Hamarneh come in here.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH  
No, I think this is quite misleading, Salah.  I think regimes do play a major role in fragmenting our societies.  You're probably a few years older than me.  We were Arabs, all of us were Arabs - and this is not an argument rooted in Arab nationalism - I'm talking about citizenship and this is how we saw each other.  You go now to almost every single Arab country and you see societies fragmented and you see the flourishing of sub-identities at the expense of a national identity.  This is a regression, this is a massive regression.
MAY CHIDIAC   
This is plurality.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH  
No, it's not plurality.
MAY CHIDIAC   
We have to respect it, to take advantage of it. 
TIM SEBASTIAN 
Is plurality democracy?
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH   
But this is the point.
MAY CHIDIAC   
Yes! Yes, if you respect plurality inside the country, this is democracy. This is true democracy.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH  
But this is not the point, this is not the point.  The point is, it is plurality but it ceases to be plurality when we become antagonistic, and this is the point I'm making.  When we degenerate into adapting these sub-identities at the expense of national identity, you really are talking about societies that are failing to integrate, and if you talk about integration, this is the success of the American model, of the judicial system.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Let me just take a question, I think we'll just go to a gentleman up there... you sir, yes.
AUDIENCE (M)  
My question is: why are we only pointing out rulers that are halting democracy? I mean, the results we had of democracy in some places, in countries... in Arab countries - the Western countries didn't like it, so do we have to go back and bring the result they want from us?
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Are you talking about the elections in the Palestinian territories?
AUDIENCE (M)   
That's an example. So it's not the rulers, it's not the people, it's the Western point of view not measuring with that, so we have to go back and do something else.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
And your point is what, that the West as too much influence?
AUDIENCE (M)  
My point - the first point - is that it is not just the rulers, so if we satisfy the people and the rulers, we are not satisfying the Western point of view, so where should we go? I mean, even if we get our results, we are not allowed to act.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Okay, so can you ask a specific question then please, what is your specific question?
AUDIENCE (M)  
Well, my specific question is: why don't we give, I mean, I agree with the other side saying it takes time.  We need our time, we have a customised democracy.  Why don't we wait for it?  I mean, they took their time, they built up their democracy for hundreds of years, and there's stories about it, but we have to take time to get to where they are right now, we need our time.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
All right, well, thank you for your view. I'll take a question from the lady in the third row please.
AUDIENCE (F)  
I was just wondering if the democracy that seems to be on a more basic level in Lebanon and Iraq - are the people actually satisfied or if, you know, the militias in Lebanon and the groups in Iraq - is that what democracy is?  I mean, it seems like it has halted because there is no education.. there isn't democratic education in Lebanon or Iraq.  There hasn't been, people maybe it seems like Beirut is going towards that, but other areas around Lebanon are still facing problems with the different sectors around Lebanon, so I think, I'm not sure, I'm not really sure about Iraq, but that's what it seems like on TV, everywhere, it's still very, very basic and it just seems like it has halted.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
May Chidiac.
MAY CHIDIAC   
No, it has not halted.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Someone who doesn't share your view.
MAY CHIDIAC   
No, I consider that in Lebanon we have to recognise that we are a democratic country, one of the first democratic countries in the Arab world.  We've been through difficult times since 1975 when we had chaos in the country and Syria was asked to come and install a kind of stability and now after they withdrew from Lebanon, they want to create a kind of chaos again and again, to be asked to come back and install stability. So if democracy means for some people stability, for me it doesn't mean stability at all. It means that you have the right to express yourself and to express yourself, you have to have all the institutions, the good tools to start constructing the whole construction for real democracy. 
TIM SEBASTIAN   
All right, let me go back to the questioner a moment and see whether she accepts that view - do you? 
AUDIENCE (F)  
You can't say that it's democracy when you're expressing yourself.  People don't express themselves in going out on the road like last February, burning tyres and screaming at each other.  That's not... when you have a debate, we speak to each other politely, we understand each other's opinions.  There isn't this education yet in the Middle East.
MAY CHIDIAC   
(... inaudible) education.  We are not talking about democracy or ...kind of... we didn't say that we have reached the best situation.  Lebanon was in a much better situation before 75, but now if you consider after being occupied for so many years, we have to go through a difficult time to put everything in order again and again.
TIM SEBASTIAN  (to questioner)
Where are you from?
AUDIENCE (F)  
I'm from Syria.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
All right.
MAY CHIDIAC 
It shows, it shows. You have stability but you don't have democracy at all, but you wanted us to be the same country as you are - but thank God we are Lebanon again.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Amr Hamzawy.
AMR HAMZAWY  
On the issue of ‘it takes time' and why don't we let Arab societies go the way which Western societies went maybe in the 19^th century or even earlier.  It's a tricky argument because, well, if you look at many Arab societies, we did have periods of democracy back in the 1920s, back in the 1930s and 40s in Iraq, in Egypt and Lebanon, in Syria.  So we are not societies which lack democratic histories.  We do have democratic histories.  What went wrong in our society is, with the inception of Arab modern nation states which came after the Second World War, we have been into autocratic ruling establishments and authoritarian management of Arab societies non-stop since then.  So the question of a time line is misleading and we ignore the fact that we live in the 21^st century.  Of course we are not going to take the time which European societies needed to democratise back in the 18^th and 19^th century.  We are in a global community.  It's a totally different thing.  Second point, just let me finish please.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Briefly.
AMR HAMZAWY  
Very briefly.  The question of the West and whether it is basically to be blamed on the West - of course it's not, but what we know from successful cases of democratic transition - Eastern Europe, Latin America - is that we need a preferable international environment which promotes, supports democratic transition.  We have been lacking a preferable international environment for democratic transition.
TIM SEBASTIAN  
Why have you been lacking it? America's been calling for it for years.
AMR HAMZAWY 
America called for it, was very high on rhetoric, very low on actions, never sustainable in actions.  We have never come closer on the American side ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
All right, May Chidiac, come back.
MAY CHIDIAC   
I just wanted to remind him, because when I was preparing this episode, I read an interview with Amr Hamzawy about democratic change in the Middle East and answering one of the questions, he said: "The result of the international dynamic of society," - he was talking about development towards democracy - "is the result of the internal dynamic of society which can take years to produce a civil society."
AMR HAMZAWY  
Sure.
MAY CHIDIAC   
You said it can take years to produce a civil society.   These are your own words - what made you change your mind?
AMR HAMZAWY  
I am not changing my mind.  Just listen to what I'm going to say.  I'm not changing my mind.  It can take years, it can take decades, but at a certain point you have to come to an evaluation and when we evaluate where we are going in the region, I would definitely say we are regressing in many Arab countries, and let me just briefly say Jordan, Egypt and Morocco are regressing - when you say Morocco is a democratic country, look at what happened at the last elections.  Voters did not turn out.  We had voter apathy, no-one went to vote.
MAY CHIDIAC
Can you remember how it was before the 1990s?
AMR HAMZAWY  
Let me just finish, let me just finish.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
One brief point, please.
AMR HAMZAWY  
Very brief. We are backsliding in many countries and in other countries we haven't been able to do the qualitative shift to serious rotation of power and free elections and stopping ruling establishments from gerrymandering, from restrictive election laws and prosecuting journalists by the way.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
All right, okay.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
I think it's very important ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Just very briefly.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY  
I must say that because you're absolutely right, you're right, Iraq and Lebanon did have democracy, but we had 50 years of cut-off period through dictatorship and military rule, and consequently that generation of the 50s, which I am at the end of, it's no longer there.  What we're trying to do in Iraq, we're trying to educate a new generation in democracy, and we are doing this on a daily basis, as I speak. UNESCO has a huge programme...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Okay, all right, I'm going to move on, there a lot of questions, I'm going to take a question please from the gentleman in the fourth row.  You, sir.
AUDIENCE (M) 
My question is for Mr. Salah. You mentioned Egypt as a progressing democracy in the Middle East and your proof for that was the very last presidential elections when President Mubarak got 67 percent.  Sir, I don't know if you followed the very recent Egyptian presidential elections but were you aware that the government actually hired bullies and positioned them on the doors and gates or every voting hall, and everybody who went there that was voting against President Mubarak was beaten up including women?  Now, I don't know if you call that progressing democracy...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Salah Al-Shaikhly.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
Well, I will definitely not, of course I don't call it progressive democracy.  You know that.  I'm against it.  I fought violence for, you know, a good 25 years of my life ...
AUDIENCE (M)  
Then how can you claim that democracy's progressing in a country like Egypt?
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
What I'm trying to say, that we are progressing, you see, look at the motion.  What I'm saying - democracy has not halted.  There are forces in the society that people want to keep their hegemony on the society and others want to progress.  I'm not condoning what has happened.  I'm saying we have a strong force. You as a young person in this society, you're going to continue to fight for democracy.  You're going to join any number of processes, trade union, students' union, parties, NGOs, you are going to fight for this process.
AUDIENCE (M)  
In order to fight for democracy, we have to admit that the progress towards democracy has halted.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
It has not.  It definitely has not.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
He doesn't seem to share your views.  Question from the gentleman in the third row, please.
AUDIENCE (M)  
Good evening ladies and gentlemen.  I have a question for Dr. Hamzawy.  You said good governments and bad governments.  You say democracy is limited.  Who decides good and bad and limited? And I need examples please.
AMR HAMZAWY  
Well, there are bench marks to decide what good governance is and what bad governance is and I don't buy the argument that our societies are specific, are particular, and benchmarks which apply universally do not apply to us.  No, they do apply to us and there are clear benchmarks.  Good governance means that we have accountability, good governance means that we have checks and balances, good governance means that we have regular change in leading positions, that Arab rulers do not stay forever, that they get voted in and voted out, that prime ministers are accountable, ministers are accountable, that they leave office sometimes.  I mean, just point to one case in the region, apart from Lebanon, and apart from Iraq, but as I said, and we're looking at failed states, but anyhow - just point to any case in the region where Arab ministers are voluntarily managed to leave their office, you will not find a single case. So then good governance has clear benchmarks and bad governance has clear benchmarks and these are universal benchmarks that do apply to us.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Let me ask the questioner whether he sees any - do you see any good governance in the Arab world?  Do you see good governance?
AUDIENCE (M)  
Well, I know they're good.  I mean, I will get to this point.  You said, Mr. Sebastian, you said, 'Who can be voted out?'  You know, give me an example of somebody who was voted out.  Well, you can't go from one end of the spectrum to the other end all of a sudden - it takes some time. 
TIM SEBASTIAN   
I merely asked the question.
AUDIENCE (M)  
Well, I'm answering the question right now.  Governments need some time to apply democracy, democratic aspects to their systems, they need their development systems and we're developing nations, and if we say that voting is the only way to practise democracy, then the US and Europe, European countries' citizens don't go and vote, only 30%, you know, to 40% of the eligible voters go and vote.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
I think your figures a little low, I think your figures a little mistaken.
AUDIENCE (M)  
Let's even say 60 per cent, how about that.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
That's double what you first said.
AUDIENCE (M)  
It's the same thing.  Well, they're given the opportunities, then do we call them undemocratic, do we call the US an undemocratic country?  No.  I mean, everyone gets a choice and they have the choice but they don't choose to practise it.
TIM SEBASTIAN  
Mustafa Hamarneh, you want to answer the question.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH  
I disagree.  I think these are arguments in support of reactionary structures and in support of the status quo. You judge rulers by actions, by the way they, as Amr said, by the way governments are ruled.  If these rulers are interested in setting up modern states, modern bureaucracies, to achieve declared objectives by consensus -none of this does exist today, and legislation that is being introduced into parliaments, elected parliament - elections are rigged all over. We've seen this happen in Jordan in the last parliamentary elections and in the last municipal elections. The municipal elections were scandalous.  Army buses pulled in and voted openly for government candidates, so I think to say we need time - Chile made it in much shorter time.  Why do we need time?  I mean, it's like that old man in the civil rights movement ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Let him just reply.
AUDIENCE (M)  
I'm from Yemen and the Republic of Yemen is only 18 years old.  Do you consider it...isn't it enough time to actually start practising democracy, like the United States, where it's been there for 220 years or something like that?
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Amr Hamzawy, you wanted to reply to that.
AMR HAMZAWY  
Let's agree on differentiating between looking at a society like Yemen or Egypt or Morocco, with all due differences between them and saying, 'Well, are they moving, are they changing?'  Of course they are changing, and there are processes, and between taking at a certain moment of time an evaluation of democracy and democratic transition, Yemen hasn't been moving forward. I observed the last parliamentary elections in Yemen and what Mustafa said, on local and parliamentary elections, did apply very much to what happened in Yemen.  Army buses, security buses - elections were rigged, gerrymandering as usual, no efficient and in fact powerful international observation was allowed in.
AUDIENCE (M)  
Is it halted now?
AMR HAMZAWY 
I would say it is, it's at a standstill, it's at a standstill in many countries.
AUDIENCE (M)  
Well, how is it, you just said with practice with democracy just a year ago and we're having parliamentary elections next year.
AMR HAMZAWY  
No, I'm saying elections were rigged in Yemen. I'm saying parliamentary elections were rigged, were not really observed. I'm saying that the ruling establishment around President Saleh did deal with the opposition spectrum and its candidates the same way it has been ...
TIM SEBASTIAN    
All right, I'm going to stop you there.  I'm sorry, you've made a lot of points and we have a lot of questions, I'm going to take one from the front row please.
AUDIENCE (M) 
Good evening.  My question is for Mr. Amr, just following on from the question of my colleague here, that I believe that democracy in Yemen, particularly in the rest of the Arab world - maybe it's progressing in some areas and in others not, but for Yemen in particular it's been fluctuating based on pressures from the outside and mainly for economic and political reasons in many aspects.  Democracy in the Arab world ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Could we have a question please.
AUDIENCE (M)  
Yes.  There is segregation between democracy at the top level whereby we choose our rulers, or democracy as we practise in our daily life, so what is your benchmark for democracy as a whole in Yemen in particular? Yemenis have been able to choose their local governments at one point of time, but they are unable to move the ruler who is really orchestrating this theatrical play that they call democracy in the Arab world.  I am for the motion.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
And where are you from?
AUDIENCE (M)  
From Yemen.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Okay, thank you.
AMR HAMZAWY  
Well, I mean, on how to define what democracy means in a country, or what democratic transition means in a country like Yemen, I would say it's quite key to keep in mind that in Yemen with the very specific tribal structure which we have and taking into consideration the fact that the Yemeni state is a weak state which manages a diverse society, there are four key points.  One is to reach a level of democratic practices, with regard to local governments, municipal council - and it's not happening. In fact it's going in the opposite direction. The last piece of legislation passed by the Yemeni parliament, very recently in fact, on local elections is definitely undemocratically spirited. The second component is to come up with a clear division of labour between tribes and the central government, and to manage the relation between central government and tribes in a democratic transparent sense - and it's not happening. Lo at what's happening in the north and how the government is managing the whole issue. The third component is to come to a real rotation of power. I mean, why on earth do we have Arab presidents staying in office forever?  The present power, Ali Abdullah Saleh, has been ruling Yemen for over two decades and he - if he decides not to run in the next elections - will probably nominate his son.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Your view is that things used to be better in Yemen than they are now.
AUDIENCE (M)  
It is fluctuating.  It's fluctuating depending on outside pressure.  But my argument was that at the grass roots, we are the people, we don't feel there is progress.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Right.
AUDIENCE (M)  
I'm supporting the argument against this motion.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
May Chidiac, do you want to come in on that?
MAY CHIDIAC   
I'm not ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
You're saying democracy is marching on.
MAY CHIDIAC   
... going to talk about Yemen, but I think since you feel that inside the society you are working towards establishing some new system and institutions, with time you will be able to change, to get to, the ruler - so you need a little time.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Gentleman in the third row, you have a question?
AUDIENCE (M)  
Good evening ladies and gentlemen.  My question is to the opposition side of the motion.  How can you claim that democracy has not halted, while in Egypt you find people, if they join certain groups, like for example the Muslim Brotherhood and some Arab groups - they either get thrown into jail or sent to exile.  How can you claim that?
TIM SEBASTIAN  
Salah Al-Shaikhly.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
Well, as you see, it's the nature of many Arab rules that this is the problem, this is why we are not progressing as fast as we could.  We have to learn that when we are in opposition, we don't raise arms against those who are in power, and those who are in power have to learn that when we are in power, they do not, they have to treat us equally amongst others and really this is where ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
But Salah Al-Shaikhly, there are plenty of people in Egypt who haven't raised arms against the government who are still chucked in jail, aren't there?
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
Not really.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
No?  Really?
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
This is what distinguishes our society from that of other established democracies.  We have not been able to be in opposition and to work within the civil society, within the people, to turn the government around, and that has been our problem.
TIM SEBASTIAN    
So it's the fault of the people and not despotic rulers?
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
When we are in opposition, we want to raise arms against the government, and of course the government ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Mustafa Hamarneh wants to come in again.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
... and I think we have to learn to be in opposition, we have to learn when we are in government to treat everybody ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Dr. Al-Shaikhly, I want to bring Mustafa Hamarneh in.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH  
No, evidence points to the contrary.  In some Arab societies where fragmentation is very noticeable and oppression is very strong, the mobilisation is almost an impossibility for people to mobilise and change governments  in place, or policies in place, and relatively open societies: Morocco, Bahrain and Jordan, there are obstacles everywhere you turn, if you attempt to mobilise or introduce politics into public life, if you campaign, if you are a candidate for parliamentary elections and introduce politics or programmes in your campaign, you're on the bad list of the state and the Muhabarat.
TIM SEBASTIAN  
Excuse me, no, I just want to bring the questioner back in for a moment, because he's after all asking the question, please, you want to come back.  Are you pessimistic about the prospects for democracy now in the Arab world?
AUDIENCE (M)  
I am pessimistic to some extent.  For example as I gave the example of Egypt, where for example people are sent to exile and people like for example jailed, for example I want to give you an example like Ayman Nour who ran for the president against Mubarak and got sent to jail.  How about that?
TIM SEBASTIAN  
Salah Al-Shaikhly, you still think it's the people's fault?
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY
Pardon?
TIM SEBASTIAN   
You still think it's the people's fault, the candidate who stood against Hosni Mubarak and was jailed?
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
What I'm saying is, this is what we lack in our democratic process.  You see, I would go to the alternative to your question: what do we do, we pack it in and sit in our home and let the rulers go ahead and do this?  We don't.  You see, we continue in our political ...
AUDIENCE (M)   
We, we who?
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
We, the people.  We, the people.  This is where democracy starts from.  We, the people, do what we think ...
MAY CHIDIAC   
This is what happened with people from the internet and Facebook.  Okay, they were oppressed but it's a start of something very important that we have to take into consideration.  It was really amazing for me to read in the newspaper that people moving through Facebook were able to create a threat to the government.  It was very important and...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
May Chidiac, you said a moment ago, and I don't think people heard you, but you said it quite quietly: "We have to resist".
MAY CHIDIAC   
Yes.  We have to resist.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
So it's up to the people to resist this party of government.
MAY CHIDIAC   
Of course, of course. If they want, if people want a change ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Even though all the levers of power are in their hands, it's up to them to resist, to fight?
MAY CHIDIAC   
They have to fight.  We can find different ways to fight, to reach our goals, but we have to start somewhere, and people have to react, sometimes peacefully, sometimes I know they have to react in a different way, but all the time I repeat that when people all over the world and even the American and the French president, for example, when they saw one and a half million Lebanese people going to the streets and rallying downtown for the first time all together, Christians and Muslim, asking Syria to get out and to implement the resolution, UN resolution 1559, this made the change in Lebanon, otherwise we would have never seen this change.  Even though we had a UN resolution, it didn't mean that this resolution was going to be applied.  [Resolution] 425 needed twenty years to be applied.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Okay.  I'm going to take another question.  Gentleman in the fourth row please, you, yes.  
AUDIENCE (M)
Thank you.  My question is for the opposition.  In an interview, Noam Chomsky, the American philosopher and linguist, said that the progress towards democracy in the Middle East is not actually of the benefit to certain countries in the West for oil, due to oil, and those countries do not want to establish or, you know, proceed democratic institutions in the Middle East.  What are your reflections on that?
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY  
Well, that is his opinion, not mine.
AUDIENCE (M)  
I didn't say it's yours.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY  
No, yes.  And I tell you for why, because this, I use to think like you when I was your age, always I thought everybody [was] conspiring against us, but as I grew older and wiser, I realised ....
TIM SEBASTIAN   
...you realised it was true.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
Good one.  I learnt, actually mixing with these policy-makers, I realised that suddenly that why, I mean, nobody comes to our countries - whether it is the Gulf, Iraq,  Egypt - and steals our resources.  We end up selling our resources on the international market with international prices, so that part of it is gone.  Nobody is going to hegemonise our countries any more, so this is gone.  Second, and this is going to an earlier question, we are not alone as people, we, the people, [are] not alone any more.  We have the international community watching all the time.  If we err, or our rulers, if they persist in their cruelty and their repression, there's always the international community, there's always somebody knocking on somebody's door, putting sanctions.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Salah Al-Shaikhly, you can't be serious.  What's the international community done for your country, Iraq, where 20% of the population is dead or displaced - what has the international community done to watch over Iraq?
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY  
Again, that is a disputable statistic.  Quite a number of them are displaced but this is for another reason, not because the international community didn't listen to us.  We were helped along for the past 20 years to get rid of the dictatorship, and I tell you something, if it wasn't for the international community and the United Nations, yes, they used the wrong reason, I mean, I don't know why people did not have the guts to go to the United Nations and say, "Look, there is a drastic human rights abuse in Iraq, never mind weapons of mass destruction." Everybody would have been ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
All right.  May Chidiac, you wanted to come in briefly.
MAY CHIDIAC   
Okay. Just one small idea, Western countries have their interests in the Arab world and the Arab world has its interests maybe outside, maybe inside, I don't know, but we have to take advantage of the right moment, that means, if their interests coincided with our interests like what happened in Lebanon, for example, or like what happened in Iraq, it's the right moment and you have to take advantage of it and try to make the changes in your country.  We cannot all the time criticise others. You have to start moving.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Let me just bring the questioner back.  Are you impressed with what you've heard?
AUDIENCE (M)  
Well, I just wanted to say that when we look at certain countries being so serious about establishing democracies and countries who have been having troubles for several years like several wars for 20, 25 years, and dictatorship, and then we look at certain countries who are very peaceful and having very positive relationships with the countries in the West, it's a lot easier to establish democracy in those countries where they have a good control than those countries who didn't have and they can take even military actions in order to establish democracy, what is the reason behind it?  Why can't they establish democracy in countries where they have very positive relations with but they can establish democracies and take even military actions in countries ...  Thank you.
TIM SEBASTIAN
Okay.  Amr Hamzawy, I want you to answer that briefly.
AMR HAMZAWY 
Thank you.  I do agree with the fact that the West international forces, international environment, do play a great role in terms of moving Arab societies ahead toward democratisation, but it's not the only factor. Much of the factors which we are suffering from which are really pushing us backward or pushing Arab societies to back-slide are local and regional, but the West is not to be blamed for all of it.  Where the West takes responsibility and has to take responsibility is at two levels.  One, especially with regard to the US, the US hasn't managed to come up with a clear hierarchy of priorities how to mix security for Israel, oil, Arab allies and democratisation.  They have been talking much about democracy promotion, haven't done much in terms of pushing friendly Arab regimes in Jordan and Egypt at least not to back-slide on democratisation, at least to stay where they were in 2003 and 2004, and the European Union and the United States have to take responsibility for not recognising some election results which the Arab street produced over the last years and which highly discredited the rhetoric on democracy promotion.  We should not ignore what happened in Palestine.  These were documented by international observers.  The most free elections, the most free elections in the region and the results were not recognised.
TIM SEBASTIAN    
So you're saying that rather than promoting democracy, the West is responsible for holding it back?
AMR HAMZAWY 
To an extent, along with different factors, we tried local and regional.  It's definitely responsible for it and when you compare the Arab world to Eastern Europe, Latin America or South Africa, in those cases the West was preferable to democratic transition, in our part of the world so far it hasn't been.
MAY CHIDIAC   
I think the Palestinian example is the best one to give.
AMR HAMZAWY  
Oh, it is, it is.
TIM SEBASTIAN  
Okay, I'm going to take a question from the gentleman up there - you sir.
AUDIENCE (M)  
This is addressed to the gentlemen for the motion.  It was mentioned by Miss May that the Arab world has different political structures and styles. Let us take the GCC countries for example.  Do you really believe that democracy especially regarding the selection of the country's leader will benefit the country itself?  The tribal system implemented could be at a relatively developed stage in [the sense of] democracy.  If we implement the same system as the US for example, a military government is likely to be selected and probably wage war against the States and Israel.  What are your thoughts about that?
AMR HAMZAWY
It doesn't have to be the same system like the United States or Great Britain or France, but there are some values which to my mind, and if you look at human experience over the last centuries, have demonstrated themselves to be most effective in terms of managing state/society relations, rulers' and citizens' relations and those values are transparency, accountability, rotation of power, distribution of power, political competition - so if we have those ingredients coming together in whatever system we might see, I'm happy with any local creation which reflect the same values. If we have those values coming together as ingredients, well, I would describe the political process in any Arab country at that level as a democratic process, even if it's not reflecting the structure of the political system which we have in Great Britain, in the United States.  It's about values and not about structures, it's not about forms, it's about interactions and practices on the ground, in reality.
[Applause]
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Sorry, please go ahead.
AUDIENCE (M)  
Let's take the prison called Gaza for example - look at Hamas. Hamas was selected as the ruling government and they were exiled and isolated in Gaza, and look at what happened to them right now, because they were sort of the "extremist" government, and Fatah, they weren't the majority of the voters but they got most of the rule, so look at it in that way.  I think the argument is too generic regarding the Arab world. If you segment the Arab world into different parts, look at the GCC for example. It's totally different than what you'd have in Lebanon and Iraq. If you get someone elected every time and sort of change the leader, it would become a mess due to the tribal and Islamic system involved in this situation.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
So you're saying democracy doesn't suit the GCC, the Gulf Cooperation Countries?
AUDIENCE (M)  
No, no, it does suit the GCC, definitely it does, but it's a different sort of democracy.  You can't implement the same democracy everywhere.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
This is not the argument we're making.  There are specific needs to every [inaudible] is different and the Gulf is different and the Arab peninsula are different than North America, but there are - and North Africa - but there are components, there are ingredients that make this democratic role which Amr outlined very clearly.  Now, there are transition periods, I think in the Gulf countries.  The money is playing the mystifying role. There's so much money here that discussions of transparency, accountability, rotation of government, are non existent, but look back at the GCC when the majority of the population and of the elite would study in Cairo, became Arab nationalists and they set up progressive newspapers and progressive structures in the early stages of the GCC countries.  Now we see a total regression on that, and this is applicable I think elsewhere in the Arab World, and therefore what Amr clearly stated here, is that we need to adapt these values and these practices.  You want to call it parliament you want to call it shura, call it, but let's have that practice, that universal practice in this body of [... inaudible].
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Okay, all right.
AUDIENCE (M)
Do you think it's coming to a halt?
TIM SEBASTIAN   
I'm sorry, your point is ...
AUDIENCE (M)  
Do you think it's coming to a halt then, the democracy that's in the GCC?  You don't think it's developing with all the cases ...
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY  
We're talking about political development. It's not happening in these countries. There is no political development as we've defined it in this gathering.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
All right, I'm going to take a question from the gentleman in the second row.   Just a reminder, we're talking about this House believing that progress towards democracy has halted in the Arab world.
AUDIENCE (M) 
I think Miss May in her opening statement made a very good point when she said that democracy is different from country to country, which I agree with.  It is.  Some countries in the Arab world have democracy like Kuwait, if I may name names, you know, Kuwait, and Lebanon, okay, and some countries, in order to have progress, to be halted, have to start first, some countries never started, it was décor only.
TIM SEBASTIAN
Okay, could we have a question please?
AUDIENCE (M)  
Yes, yes.  My question is, I take exception to two things. Why do we blame the West and foreigners for everything, we blame ourselves. If you want to blame somebody, look at the mirror.  Nepal is an example. A few months ago, the Nepalese people forced the King to resign, and to give him credit, he didn't even leave the country, he gave the throne and he stayed there, so my question - why do we blame the West for everything?  Number two, I take strong exception for putting Iraq right now and Lebanon as a democracy model.  Iraq is not a democracy model, it's under occupation and if anybody can say it is really democracy, then I am from another planet.  Thank you.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
May Chidiac.
MAY CHIDIAC   
I will not talk about Iraq because ambassador Al-Shaikhly will talk about it better than I do, but Iraq is working towards democracy.  They made big steps towards democracy, and in a few years, not in a long time, the occupation will leave the country and I think if we compare between what's happening right now and what was happening even last year, even when we talk about people who are killed, the number is regressing in a really splendid way, so that means you have to pay a price, you have to make sacrifices to achieve, to reach democracy.  You cannot stay, as you said before, in the corner, and say, 'Oh, I'm not lucky.'
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Okay, you want to come back on that.
MAY CHIDIAC   
We have to move to deserve it.
AUDIENCE (M)  
I think when you say progress in Iraq, I still insist it's wrong, because half the world doesn't even recognised the government of Iraq, never mind progress and democracy.  The elections in some countries is décor, like in Egypt, and I'm sorry, Dr. Salah, when you say it's a progress, it's a joke, I'm sorry to say that, but when you said it's progress, it's a joke.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Do you want to answer that?
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
Well, you're lucky because I'm a democrat.
AUDIENCE (M) 
Me too.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH 
A what?
TIM SEBASTIAN  
He's a democrat.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
You can say what you like and I'll respect it.  I don't represent the Iraqi government here, I'm a free agent, and let me tell you, ladies and gentlemen, it is the most difficult thing on earth to be in a position of power.  If you think it's easy, you try it one of these days when you grow up. You'll find that the size of the problem that comes at you, it is absolutely staggering.
TIM SEBASTIAN  
Dr. Al-Shaikhly, that's nothing to do with the point that he was making.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY
Having said that ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
He was making a different point.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY  
Yes, yes, yes, no, no, no, but I mean, because you see, having said that, we have reached the point where we are now in Iraq, after a long struggle.  Now it wasn't in the hands of ...
AUDIENCE (M)   
I'm sorry, what is struggle, what is struggle?  The government was put by the Americans there.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Could you not please talk at the same time.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
I heard you, you should have the courtesy to hear me.
AUDIENCE (M)  
I'm sorry.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY   
We arrived at this point after a long struggle.  It is not within the capacity of the Iraqi government that we have the occupation that we have at present.  Now, that is like May said, they're going to go - 12 months, 24 months, 36 months, they'll be disappearing. What is left in Iraq is going to be a base for true democratic rule - not the final result, in fact I'm happy with the 25 per cent, and then another four years, then we'll add another 25 per cent, and within the next three general elections probably we'll have a proper democracy.  Don't let us behave like Hamas did or the Algerian Islamists did.  Don't let us give an excuse to the West. 
TIM SEBASTIAN  
Okay, let Amr Hamzawy come back.
SALAH AL-SHAIKHLY 
Yes, yes.  The minute we are under pressure, we go back to arms, and this is really ...
TIM SEBASTIAN  
All right, thank you, you've made your point, please.
AMR HAMZAWY  
What's happening in Iraq now is not really about democratic transition. It's about the reconstruction of a nation state.  What's taking place in Iraq right now is a reconstruction of the state, and once you have fulfilled the tasks of reconstructing the state, clarifying what kind of relation you will have between the central government or a federal government and regions, between the government and different militias which are still running around, some of the challenges which we face in Lebanon - once you have a clear structure for managing state/society relations, you can move ahead and see where we stand on democracy, but to confuse what's happening in Iraq right now, to confuse it with democratic transition, it's not.  It's reconstructing the state which ...
MAY CHIDIAC   
These are steps towards democracy.  We agree on the same point.  We have to work for democracy.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Please let May Chidiac say something.
MAY CHIDIAC   
If you don't have this established, you will never have democracy.
AMR HAMZAWY  
May, not everything which happens on earth is a step toward democracy.  Two journalists getting out of the way and saying, "No to Mubarak" is not a democratic step.
TIM SEBASTIAN
Okay, I'm going to take a question from the lady who's behind you, there.
AUDIENCE (F)  
Good evening.  My question is to the opposite side to the motion. You grabbed my attention when you mentioned something about Facebook.  Do you think it's democratic that censorship in some Arab countries bans some websites?
MAY CHIDIAC
Of course not.
AUDIENCE (F)
Do you agree that it's democratic that some countries allow it, and when the people go and mention their opinions, their political opinions, they face troubles and they go to prison?
MAY CHIDIAC 
This is what I was saying.  I was saying that I consider the step taken by some young people in Egypt to express themselves and to invite the whole community to join them to say ‘no' to what was happening - this was a wonderful step.  It was halted for some time, but they cannot halt it forever.  This is a process that will have to continue - and if they stay in the corner and say, 'We will not move on any more,' that means it's over, no democracy, nothing will ever change in the Arab world, and this is not what we want to happen. We want to be free. We want freedom of expression, we want accountability, we want to be able to vote, to say we want this ruler, this president, we want ... When we talk about Lebanon and we take it as an example, we all the time say it's the only country in the Arab world where you have an ex-president, an ex-prime minister - because in the other Arab countries, you have the president for the whole life, or you have monarchies.  So we have to change the system.
TIM SEBASTIAN  
All right, let the questioner come back, she wants to make another point. What did you want to say?
AUDIENCE (F)  
I want to say that of course your opinion is very good but censorship is banning this progress. It's banned.  I mean, of course progress is ...
TIM SEBASTIAN   
And we've seen fresh attempts by the Information ministers of the Arab League.
MAY CHIDIAC   
Can I say something?  If you look at me, this is a prosthesis (points to arm), this is a prosthesis (points to leg), but I'm still here expressing myself.  I've been threatened two months ago.  The same party who wanted to kill me three years ago reiterated their threats two months ago, but I'm still here. You have to believe in what you want and you have to work for it, to give sacrifice for it.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH 
I think it's a very small focus point that we're trying to make here, and that is the top hierarchies in these Arab states are not interested in democracy nor promoting democracy, but it's not a discussion about Arab culture, the lack of will among Arab people and so on or inability to mobilise. It is the structures that are in place on the level of the state society and on the regional level. They're not only putting obstacles now in our societies, but on the regional level, they're meeting in Cairo and in Riyadh and elsewhere, and trying to censor the internet and that space that people found more freedom in than the regular spaces.
TIM SEBASTIAN
All right, I'm going to take a question from the gentleman in the front row there.
AUDIENCE (M)   
Thank you.  My question is addressed to the team debating against the motion.  You have brought the time factor many times into the debate - and I'm not convinced.  I would like to believe in what you are telling us, that be patient, democracy is going to be achieved, if not tomorrow, the day after. Don't you think this is the same specific argument used by autocratic regimes? So you are standing on the same box.
MAY CHIDIAC   
Not at all, not at all, I'm really sorry.  If you want to give them the excuses to stop you from moving towards democracy or freedom, it's your problem, but you have to start somewhere and when we say you have to start somewhere, you cannot blame the rulers or the autocrats, that they are not giving you the opportunity. You have to catch the opportunity, you have to work till you catch the right moment and move forward.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH  
It's an argument you tell poor people.  You know, you have to work hard, but these people work very hard, but the venues towards upward mobility are closed by the structures themselves, so what you are saying here, 'Work hard, we are activists, we've been fired from our jobs ...'
MAY CHIDIAC   
Somewhere they are closed.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH 
No, no, no.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
Amr Hamzawy, you want to make a quick point.
AMR HAMZAWY  
Right, right, a quick ...  I do agree with what you said and what Salah said on the need for Arabs to mobilise, to be more active and we have impressive experiences taking place, Facebook in Egypt, similar cases in Tunisia and Morocco and some Gulf countries even, regardless where we look, but the point which Mustafa and I are trying to make is, it's not simply about citizens.  We have structures which are still very much in charge of managing state/society relations, and those structures have pushed democratic transition in the region into a halt, that's all what we are saying. The ingredients are correct which you are pointing out, but they are not coming together in a way which can generate or could generate enough pressures on Arab governments to open up, because at the end of the day, it is Arab governments which are the gate-keepers, not you, not Salah, not Mustafa, not me.
MAY CHIDIAC   
Please repeat the motion of tonight.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
You can repeat it, there it is.
MAY CHIDIAC    
Is it halted, yes or no?  You are saying yes, it's halted.  We are saying, no, it's still progressing, maybe slowly, but it's continuing.
TIM SEBASTIAN  
All right, so we'll be coming to a vote on that very soon.  Before we do, let me just take a question from that gentleman over there, you've had your hand up for a long time.
AUDIENCE (M)  
Good evening.  Dr. Mustafa, you have mentioned earlier that small steps towards a democracy are not enough. Is it not necessary to give to the people time in order to understand and adapt the democratic standards?  These small steps will help them understand democratic standards.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH
I think we've had enough time. If you look at the history - the political history - of the region, we've been attempting to move forward since basically Mohamed Ali and the era of modernisation, you know, 1807 in Egypt, and as Amr outlined and Salah has reiterated, there were long, relatively long periods in Iraq and Egypt and in Syria and Lebanon of liberalisation, political liberalisation and you had more functioning parliaments in these societies than you have today, and also if you look at the post-89/90 era, in some countries, specifically in a country like Jordan, you have a golden age actually between 89 and 93, and the benchmark is how many pieces of legislation were introduced and passed into laws and made the society more open. Today most of these laws... the state has introduced more restrictive laws and passed them through parliament and therefore the public space in our societies today is more restricted, the possibility to mobilise freely and enter into union, whether in trade unions or political parties, in almost all these societies, is much more restricted than in the 30s and 40s.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
All right.  Do you think democracy is moving forward in the Arab world?  Do you want to give it time?
AUDIENCE (M)  
I think it's moving forward but people need time.  These are very good steps, these are examples of good steps, and even in the region, in the GCC countries, there are steps.  Now, people need time because you can't change them and apply blunt chalk.  They need time to understand.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH  
It's not what we're saying.  We were at more advanced stages in the 20s and 30s than we are today, and why do we need more time?  Look at Spain. Spain, just Franco died, in a few years Spain ended up with a most progressive constitution in Europe.  Look at Portugal, look at Greece.  Chile - Chile made it, Chile made it, although Pinochet was not defeated, in the plebiscite Pinochet got 46/47 per cent of the vote.
TIM SEBASTIAN   
All right.
MUSTAFA HAMARNEH 
Yet Chile made it and today Chile is a very progressive society, a very democratic society.

TIM SEBASTIAN
Okay, thank you.  Excuse me, no, I'm afraid we're running out of time.  We've come to the point where we are going to vote on the motion that ‘This House believes that progress towards democracy has halted in the Arab World'.  Before you press any buttons, let me explain how this works and then I'll tell you exactly when and which button to press.  If you want to vote for the motion, the side represented by Amr Hamzawy and Mustafa Hamarneh, you'll need to press button ‘one'. If you want to vote against the motion, the side represented by May Chidiac and Salah Al-Shaikhly, you will need to press button ‘two'.  Would you please choose the appropriate button and press it now......... All right, there is the vote, it's up on our screens.  64 per cent for the motion, 36 per cent against - the motion has been resoundingly carried.  All it remains for me to do is to thank our distinguished speakers for coming here tonight.  Some of you have come a long way, we really appreciate it.  Thanks very much to you, the audience.  The Doha Debates will be back again next month.  Till then, from all of us on the team, have a safe journey home. Good night, thank you.